Gold Cup Semifinal Preview: Reinvigorated El Tri Faces Gritty Honduras in Clash of Old Rivals

Tonight’s semifinal offers everything CONCACAF fans love: history, underdog passion, flair, and a chance at glory. Will Mexico complete its redemption arc, or will Honduras write a new chapter in its Cinderella run?

Tonight in Santa Clara, a classic CONCACAF rivalry is reborn on one of the region’s biggest stages as Mexico’s El Tri takes on a resurgent Honduras in the 2025 Gold Cup semifinal. While Mexico’s dominance and pedigree need no introduction, Honduras arrives as a team rewriting its own script—turning underdog grit into one of the most compelling Cinderella stories of this tournament.

With a spot in the final on the line, and a potential showdown with the winner of USA–Guatemala looming, this semifinal is layered with storylines, history, and high stakes.

Honduras: The Cinderella With a Steel Spine

Honduras entered the 2025 Gold Cup with tempered expectations and a roster lacking the star power of past generations. But under head coach Reinaldo Rueda Rivera, La H has defied the odds and now finds itself just 90 minutes away from its first Gold Cup final since 1991.

Their quarterfinal win over Panama was nothing short of a thriller. After a 1-1 draw that saw Honduras equalize late through forward Anthony Lozano, the match went to penalties, where goalkeeper Edrick Menjívar became a national hero—saving two spot-kicks and sealing a 4-3 shootout win.

It was a symbolic moment for a squad full of fighters. Honduras’ path to the semis also included a gritty 2-0 win over El Salvador and a late 2-1 win against Curacao in the group stage, securing second place behind Canada in Group B, despite losing to the top team 6-0 earlier.

Rodríguez has been electric on the wing, midfielder Luis Palma has announced himself as one of the tournament’s breakout players, if not the best midfield performer. Their defensive shape has held up against quicker, more technical opponents, and their belief has only grown.

They’ve already stunned one favorite. Now, they’re hoping to take down the biggest name in CONCACAF.

Mexico: Swagger Restored, and Just in Time

After a rocky 2023 and questions swirling around the direction of the program, Mexico’s 2025 Gold Cup campaign has been a timely resurgence. Under head coach Jaime Lozano—back in charge after returning to the helm late last year—El Tri has reestablished itself as the team to beat.

Lozano, once considered a stopgap, has proven himself a brilliant tactician and motivator. His side has blended Mexico’s traditional technical flair with renewed energy and structure. And the results have followed: a perfect group stage capped by a commanding 2-0 win over Suriname, a disciplined 3-2 result against the Dominican Republic, and a tight 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in the final group match-day.

In the quarterfinal, Mexico put on a show, dismantling a confident Saudi side 2-0 behind a goal from rising star Alexis Vega and a great team goal, eventually given as an Own-Goal against Saudi defender Madu. Needing mention was the dazzling creativity of 16-year-old phenom Gilberto Mora. The teenager has been one of the tournament’s biggest talking points—poised, fearless, and already being compared to early-career Carlos Vela.

At the heart of the squad is captain Edson Álvarez. Still only 27, the West Ham midfielder has brought maturity and leadership to a young team hungry to reassert Mexican dominance. Veteran striker Raul Jimenez adds quality and experience to a squad that’s as balanced as it is exciting.

A Rivalry Steeped in History

These two nations have faced off 47 times in official competition, with Mexico leading the all-time series 29-9-9. Their Gold Cup history has been even more one-sided: Mexico holds a 5-1-2 record against Honduras in the tournament, including wins in the 2011 semifinals and 2017 quarterfinals.

In their most recent meeting Mexico was dominant. In 2021, it took just the first half for El Tri to push three goals past a resilient Honduran side and a place in the quarterfinals. Honduras showings since, and most notably in this tournament, point to a more difficult, if not even, match this time.

Key Battles to Watch

• Santiago Giménez vs. Denil Maldonado: Giménez’s movement and finishing have been lethal, but the experienced Honduran has had an excellent tournament marshaling the back line.
• Edson Álvarez vs. Honduran Attack: This duel could dictate the rhythm and control of the match. Alvarez has been a stalwart in defense and as captain, while Honduras has shown a versatile and balanced attack, notably from Lozano, as well as Quioto, Alvarez and Rodriguez.
• Gilberto Mora vs. Flores & Arriaga: Honduras will likely deploy a double-team or staggered coverage to contain the teenager whose flair has made headlines across CONCACAF.

What’s at Stake

For Mexico, a return to the final is expected. After proving themselves winning the 2023 Gold Cup and enduring a turbulent managerial carousel since, this tournament has been a chance to reset the narrative—and so far, they’ve done just that. Anything less than lifting the trophy will still feel like a disappointment.

For Honduras, the stakes are different. They are already playing with house money. But the spirit in the squad suggests they’re not done dreaming. A place in the final would be a watershed moment for a generation of players eager to bring Honduran football to the forefront.

Prediction

In this match I see El Tri building off of their tournament success with a 3-0 win. Mexico has looked sharp and in control throughout the tournament, but Honduras thrives in chaos—and they’ve proven their resilience in knockout scenarios. If La H can frustrate Mexico early and push the match deep, anything is possible.

Kickoff: 7:00 PM PST at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
TV: FS1 / TUDN / Univision
Winner faces: USA or Guatemala in the final