Gold Cup Semifinal Preview: USMNT vs Guatemala

Can the small, plucky hero of Central America slay the regional heavyweight? Or will the USMNT finally find its stride at the business end of the tournament? One thing is certain: tonight’s semifinal promises pre-Fourth of July fireworks.

Gold Cup Semifinal Preview: USMNT Faces Surging Guatemala in High-Stakes Showdown
By Peter Jorgensen, Sports Correspondent

As the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal looms, few would have predicted this matchup: the perennial regional powerhouse United States Men’s National Team squaring off against a resurgent Guatemala side that has stormed into the final four on the back of grit, belief, and one of the tournament’s most compelling underdog stories. Set to take place tonight, this semifinal promises high drama as two teams arrive in St. Louis with very different narratives and pressure riding on their shoulders.

Guatemala: The Cinderella Story Comes Alive

For Guatemala, this tournament has already been a historic triumph. After entering the Gold Cup largely overlooked by pundits and bookmakers alike, Los Chapines have rewritten expectations match by match. Their defining moment came in the quarterfinals, where they stunned Canada—ranked 30th in the FIFA World Rankings (the nation’s all time highest)—with a 1-1 draw in regular time and an electrifying 5-4 victory on penalties.

It was a landmark result for a team that hasn’t reached a Gold Cup semifinal since 1996 and has never appeared in the final. But under Mexican head coach Luis Fernando Tena, Guatemala has shed its underdog skin. They’ve blended tactical discipline with bursts of individual brilliance, notably from the young former USMNT striker (who plays at USL’s Charleston Battery) Rubio Rubin —who has three goal involvements so far—and captain José Pinto, the defensive anchor and emotional heart of the squad, with one major goal.

Guatemala’s run through the tournament has included a statement 1-0 win over Jamaica, a tense 0-1 loss to Panama, and a crucial 3-2 win over Guadeloupe in the group stage. They’ve shown versatility in formation, defensive tenacity (only four goals allowed in four matches), and the kind of fearless mentality that defines Cinderella campaigns.

USMNT: Flashes of Talent, Clouds of Doubt

The United States enters this semifinal as the clear favorite on paper. But performances on the pitch have painted a murkier picture. Under new head coach Mauricio Pochettino—freshly appointed from his career in club football, last with Chelsea in England—the USMNT has been inconsistent and, at times, uninspired.

After stumbling through pre-tournament friendlies with a loss to Turkey and a 4-0 thrashing against Switzerland, the Americans were unconvincing through the group stage. A 2-1 win over Haiti was marred by defensive lapses. Saudi Arabia, a surprisingly difficult team, held them to 1-0. Even their 5-0 win against Trinidad and Tobago was far from convincing. Then came the quarterfinal: a gritty, nervy encounter with Costa Rica. Missing, through yellow card accumulation, both star midfielder Carlos Mora and forward Manfred Ugalda (3 goals). Los Ticos were expected to falter, but instead they took the U.S. to the brink. After a 2-2 draw in regulation, it took a shootout—and moments of brilliance from young keeper Matt Freese, and of fortune against 38-year-old goalkeeper Keylor Navas—for the US to escape.

For a program aiming to reassert dominance in CONCACAF ahead of the 2026 World Cup on home soil, this has not been a reassuring campaign. Notably, the team has been missing a laundry list of star players. Some reportedly through needed injury rehab- such as Ricardo Pepi, Antonee Robinson, Folarin Balogun, and Yunus Musah. Others missing the Gold Cup to play for their club football in this summer’s Club World Cup- also hosted by the U.S.- including stalwart Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Gio Reyna. Two players are missing the tournament for personal/football reasons, Josh Sargent, and -with controversy- most notably, captain Christian Pulisic. Much has been expected of emerging stars like Diego Luna and Chris Richards, but the U.S. has lacked cohesion and a clear tactical identity under the early stages of Pochettino’s tenure.

History and Head-to-Head

In head-to-head matchups, history heavily favors the U.S. The USMNT holds a commanding 16-5-6 record against Guatemala, including a 4-0 thrashing in their last meeting during a March 29, 2016 World Cup qualifier. Guatemala has not beaten the United States since four days earlier on the 25th, when early goals from Morales and Ruiz lifted them to a 2-0 win.

Yet, in tournament football, momentum often outweighs history. And right now, Guatemala has plenty of it.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Rubio Rubin vs. Chris Richards: The Guatemalan striker has been a revelation, but will face his toughest test yet against the US’s athletic center-back.
• The Midfield Battle: Midfield dominance will be key, and USMNT’s new midfield cohorts box-to-box presence needs to rise to the occasion after uneven performances thus far. This will be tough against Rudy Nunoz and right-back Aaron Herrera -who appears to be everywhere on the pitch at once- Guatemala’s midfield that has continued to rise to the occasion.
• Matt Freese in Goal: With both teams having faced shootouts in the quarterfinals, the possibility of another looming tie-breaker is real—and Freese’s ability to perform under pressure could be decisive after giving us both heroics & glaring mistakes thus far.

What’s at Stake

For the USMNT, anything short of a final appearance will be viewed as failure. After winning the 2021 Gold Cup and co-hosting the 2026 World Cup, expectations are high, even in transition.

For Guatemala, this is already a historic run—but with the confidence built over four matches, they’re no longer content to be a feel-good story. A trip to the final would cement this squad’s place in national lore and could galvanize the future of football in the country.

Prediction

I predict USA by one goal, two if USA takes a lead in the first 20 minutes. The U.S. has the edge in depth and pedigree, but Guatemala’s chemistry and momentum make them dangerous. If the Americans don’t assert themselves early, they risk another tense finish—and perhaps the most shocking result of the tournament. Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST at Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri 

Viewing: FS1 / Univision / TUDN
Winner faces: Mexico or Honduras in the final